Low-Carbon Healthcare Industry Interconnection: Carbon-Flow Identification and Scenario Simulation
1. School of Big Data and Intelligent Engineering, Chongqing College of International Business and Economics, Chongqing 401520, China
2. Chengdu Institute of Metrology Verification and Test, Chengdu 610000, China
| Abstract: | Against the combined background of global climate governance and the digital transformation of healthcare, low-carbon development in the healthcare industry chain has shifted from energy-saving measures within individual medical institutions to coordinated governance across multiple industrial sectors. This study defines a patient-centered boundary for healthcare industry interconnection. On the basis of direct carbon accounting and input-output embodied carbon-flow analysis, it develops a hierarchical collaborative optimization model that integrates critical-path emissions, terminal-sector-induced emissions, and system-stability constraints. Target cascading is adopted to decompose and coordinate the resulting multi-objective optimization problem. Using publicly available sectoral carbon-emission and input-output data from CEADs, macroeconomic data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, and total health-expenditure data from national and WHO sources, we calibrate the healthcare industry chain for 2018-2022 and conduct scenario simulations. The results show that the critical-path optimization mechanism reduces calibrated carbon emissions by approximately 18.7% relative to the baseline while maintaining an economic output growth rate of about 4.2%. The coordinated critical-path and terminal-sector mechanism performs better in both emission-reduction performance and system stability. These findings indicate that low-carbon transformation in healthcare should not be limited to terminal energy conservation in hospitals; instead, it should identify and compress high-intensity embodied carbon-flow paths transmitted through upstream manufacturing, logistics and warehousing, chemical inputs, and energy supply. |
| Keywords: | Low-Carbon Healthcare; Industry Interconnection; Embodied Carbon Flow; Target Cascading; Scenario Simulation; Supply-Chain Stability |
| DOI: | 10.57237/j.wjmst.2026.03.001 |
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收稿日期: 2026-07-06
接受日期: 2026-08-14
在线出版日期: 2026-09-07
基金
| 1. | Natural Science Project of Chongqing College of International Business and Economics (KYZK202306) |
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